Bikash
Choudhury
Afghanistan would once
again go down in the history as “the grave yard of super power” if USA
does not modify its approach afresh. Over ten years of engagement and last four
years of surge has produced very little on the ground. Karazai Govt. in Kabul
just remains the prisoner of the old city; the statement has almost turned a
cliché. Taliban plus ISI still holds the power and ability to strike deep
inside the city at will. American and allied forces actual casualties are
rising. On top of it, ISI has not stopped its favorite double game which has
made Afghanistan
a very dangerous place on earth. As expected, Obama exit strategy of 2014 would
leave Afghanistan exactly where it all started; a vicious and lethal place
which could still plan and execute deadly terrorist strikes all across the
world and even inside USA. As the recent attack in Iraq
taking a toll of over hundred lives says it all.
America
has two options. One is to contain Pakistani ISI lock-stock and barrel from
playing a spoil sport. And second one is to encourage India
and Pakistan to
bridge all those gaps in their relations; so meticulously created in last sixty
five years since 1947. USA
is incidentally partially responsible for the volatile relations between two
neighbors; therefore, USA
also has the moral responsibility to undo the damages incurred earlier. The
Idea is if ISI was brought down to size by overt or covert means by CIA;
possibly, all democratic forces in Pakistan
would welcome such an initiative; though tacitly. As democratic Govt. in Pakistan
is finding it hard to tame its own spy agency; which has become a law on to
itself. Then Taliban and other strategic assets of ISI in the border regions of
two countries would become very weak; and, those can be easily handled by
allied forces and win some tactical advantage. This hypothesis would only work
as and when the democratic Govt. and their respective armed forces (India
& Pakistan) are together on terrorism and on development. This is in
fact a good time as the public pressure is growing on Govt. of Pakistan for
better economic performance and governance; and as India & Pakistan share a
complementary economy and culture, USA would find it easier and less expensive
to bring the two neighbors together by incentivising the trade, commerce and
cultural contacts which eventually would integrate the two economy and act as
insurance against Pakistani interference in Afghanistan. The popular belief
remains-Afghanistan policy of Pakistan
was India
centric; largely out of its own existential crisis. If India and Pakistan get
their acts together once; then it would be very difficult and expensive for
Pakistan to disentangle and support Taliban and others in the soils of its
neighbor; which will clear the high way for USA and allied forces for a
decisive military victory or a diplomatic negotiated settlement bringing
curtains to the terrorism factory of the World. This new Afghan strategy of USA
could facilitate a smooth American exit by 2014-16. Obama administration should
and must spare a thought.
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