NEW AFGHAN STRATEGY OF AMERICA

Bikash Choudhury

Afghanistan would once again go down in the history as “the grave yard of super power” if USA does not modify its approach afresh. Over ten years of engagement and last four years of surge has produced very little on the ground. Karazai Govt. in Kabul just remains the prisoner of the old city; the statement has almost turned a cliché. Taliban plus ISI still holds the power and ability to strike deep inside the city at will. American and allied forces actual casualties are rising. On top of it, ISI has not stopped its favorite double game which has made Afghanistan a very dangerous place on earth. As expected, Obama exit strategy of 2014 would leave Afghanistan exactly where it all started; a vicious and lethal place which could still plan and execute deadly terrorist strikes all across the world and even inside USA. As the recent attack in Iraq taking a toll of over hundred lives says it all.

America has two options. One is to contain Pakistani ISI lock-stock and barrel from playing a spoil sport. And second one is to encourage India and Pakistan to bridge all those gaps in their relations; so meticulously created in last sixty five years since 1947. USA is incidentally partially responsible for the volatile relations between two neighbors; therefore, USA also has the moral responsibility to undo the damages incurred earlier. The Idea is if ISI was brought down to size by overt or covert means by CIA; possibly, all democratic forces in Pakistan would welcome such an initiative; though tacitly. As democratic Govt. in Pakistan is finding it hard to tame its own spy agency; which has become a law on to itself. Then Taliban and other strategic assets of ISI in the border regions of two countries would become very weak; and, those can be easily handled by allied forces and win some tactical advantage. This hypothesis would only work as and when the democratic Govt. and their respective armed forces (India & Pakistan) are together on terrorism and on development. This is in fact a good time as the public pressure is growing on Govt. of Pakistan for better economic performance and governance; and as India & Pakistan share a complementary economy and culture, USA would find it easier and less expensive to bring the two neighbors together by incentivising the trade, commerce and cultural contacts which eventually would integrate the two economy and act as insurance against Pakistani interference in Afghanistan. The popular belief remains-Afghanistan policy of Pakistan was India centric; largely out of its own existential crisis. If India and Pakistan get their acts together once; then it would be very difficult and expensive for Pakistan to disentangle and support Taliban and others in the soils of its neighbor; which will clear the high way for USA and allied forces for a decisive military victory or a diplomatic negotiated settlement bringing curtains to the terrorism factory of the World. This new Afghan strategy of USA could facilitate a smooth American exit by 2014-16. Obama administration should and must spare a thought.

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