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BIKASH CHOUDHURY
Raghuram Rajan, RBI Governor recently said “An Unstable Govt. after
the General Election would make Economic revival that much more
difficult and could punish the Economy in the long run”. Can’t have a
more authentic & unbiased view on the subject from a person who has
observed the economy from a very close quarters. Political Party like
BJP should take this matter to people for their mandate more
purposefully than putting all the eggs in one basket. RSS has rightly
cautioned the right wing party to take the challenges posed by the new
phenomena AAP more seriously and move towards more participative
democracy; not only to address the new challenge but on the demands of
time and on National interest. It would be wiser for BJP to recognize
the popular mood in the country and respect the issues thrown up by
the emergence of AAP. Congress Party was much smarter in extending
support to the AAP Govt. in Delhi to cut its losses by latching on to
the popular sentiment. AAP has certainly changed the dynamics of the
middle class living room discussion to action on the ground; the brand
new party has been able to give shape to the long pending middle class
aspiration to participate meaning fully in the Governance of the
country. BJP would have to do some thing out of box to capture the
imagination of ‘middle class’ in order to return to power and do
justice to its mission 272.
Indian electorates have been much smarter and its
democracy matured like old Scotch whisky that has been proved again
and again in last sixty plus years. Autocratic Mrs. Indira Gandhi was
shown the door in 1977 & cabal Janata Party sent packing in just three
years after being popularly elected. The beauty of recent Delhi
Assembly election outcome gives an incite to the mind of an average
Indian electorate. People of Delhi overwhelmingly came out and voted
to give ‘power’ to a brand new party; but, they did not give AAP a
simple majority; apparently owing to their ignorance & inexperience in
Governance. As a risk management tool they gave a veto power to
opposition in case of emergency. With the same logic, it is apparent
now that Indian electorate would give BJP a complete mandate after
putting them in opposition benches for 10 years. The Congress
Party/UPA had a golden opportunity to give this country a new
direction; however, they have brought despair & frustration in
Governance. If recent assembly election results any indication; Indian
electorates have already made up its mind to give marching orders to
Congress Party/UPA; while mulling over to give an opportunity to BJP
to prove its mettle in dealing with the Economy, National Pride and
Security of the Nation.
It is abundantly clear now that
young and first time voters would come out in large numbers and vote
for BJP in the general election, as there is no other alternative
before them who could manage the National Affairs to their liking and
satisfaction. Since, AAP is work in progress mode at present & the
Third Front a non-starter as yet. There are subtle indications for the
first time a majority of minority community would vote for the right
wing party in spite of their reservations after their frustration with
pseudo secularist political parties who have taken them for granted
for too long. Congress Party traditional vote bank could move
substantially in favor of BJP on the issue of price rise alone and
there is a distinct possibility of shrinking political space for SP &
BSP in Uttar Pradesh, white collar & blue collar workers moving
towards AAP at the expense of BJP & Left Front. However, BJP could be
the net gainer in the Hindi Heart land due to the emergence of AAP &
the buzz created by the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
BJP could open its accounts in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha,
Tamil Nadu and Kerala. As things stand now BJP/NDA could romp home
comfortably with 287 seats in 16th Lok Sabha, Congress Party could
come down to 77 seats and others including AAP 179 seats while AAP
cornering 10-20 parliamentary seats as debutant. (The heterogeneous
demography, lack of organization in many States and paucity of time
could work against the Aam Aadmi Party). Sixteenth Lok Sabha could
miss the wisdom of P.Chidambaram, Manishankar Iyer, Jairam Ramesh and
Sarad Pawar while a bunch of new faces like Captain Gopinath, Meera
Sanyal, Nandan Nilekani and Yogendra Yadav could be seen in the
Central Hall. My Guess is BJP would remain unstoppable in 2014.
BIKASH CHOUDHURY
Raghuram Rajan, RBI Governor recently said “An Unstable Govt. after
the General Election would make Economic revival that much more
difficult and could punish the Economy in the long run”. Can’t have a
more authentic & unbiased view on the subject from a person who has
observed the economy from a very close quarters. Political Party like
BJP should take this matter to people for their mandate more
purposefully than putting all the eggs in one basket. RSS has rightly
cautioned the right wing party to take the challenges posed by the new
phenomena AAP more seriously and move towards more participative
democracy; not only to address the new challenge but on the demands of
time and on National interest. It would be wiser for BJP to recognize
the popular mood in the country and respect the issues thrown up by
the emergence of AAP. Congress Party was much smarter in extending
support to the AAP Govt. in Delhi to cut its losses by latching on to
the popular sentiment. AAP has certainly changed the dynamics of the
middle class living room discussion to action on the ground; the brand
new party has been able to give shape to the long pending middle class
aspiration to participate meaning fully in the Governance of the
country. BJP would have to do some thing out of box to capture the
imagination of ‘middle class’ in order to return to power and do
justice to its mission 272.
Indian electorates have been much smarter and its
democracy matured like old Scotch whisky that has been proved again
and again in last sixty plus years. Autocratic Mrs. Indira Gandhi was
shown the door in 1977 & cabal Janata Party sent packing in just three
years after being popularly elected. The beauty of recent Delhi
Assembly election outcome gives an incite to the mind of an average
Indian electorate. People of Delhi overwhelmingly came out and voted
to give ‘power’ to a brand new party; but, they did not give AAP a
simple majority; apparently owing to their ignorance & inexperience in
Governance. As a risk management tool they gave a veto power to
opposition in case of emergency. With the same logic, it is apparent
now that Indian electorate would give BJP a complete mandate after
putting them in opposition benches for 10 years. The Congress
Party/UPA had a golden opportunity to give this country a new
direction; however, they have brought despair & frustration in
Governance. If recent assembly election results any indication; Indian
electorates have already made up its mind to give marching orders to
Congress Party/UPA; while mulling over to give an opportunity to BJP
to prove its mettle in dealing with the Economy, National Pride and
Security of the Nation.
It is abundantly clear now that
young and first time voters would come out in large numbers and vote
for BJP in the general election, as there is no other alternative
before them who could manage the National Affairs to their liking and
satisfaction. Since, AAP is work in progress mode at present & the
Third Front a non-starter as yet. There are subtle indications for the
first time a majority of minority community would vote for the right
wing party in spite of their reservations after their frustration with
pseudo secularist political parties who have taken them for granted
for too long. Congress Party traditional vote bank could move
substantially in favor of BJP on the issue of price rise alone and
there is a distinct possibility of shrinking political space for SP &
BSP in Uttar Pradesh, white collar & blue collar workers moving
towards AAP at the expense of BJP & Left Front. However, BJP could be
the net gainer in the Hindi Heart land due to the emergence of AAP &
the buzz created by the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
BJP could open its accounts in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha,
Tamil Nadu and Kerala. As things stand now BJP/NDA could romp home
comfortably with 287 seats in 16th Lok Sabha, Congress Party could
come down to 77 seats and others including AAP 179 seats while AAP
cornering 10-20 parliamentary seats as debutant. (The heterogeneous
demography, lack of organization in many States and paucity of time
could work against the Aam Aadmi Party). Sixteenth Lok Sabha could
miss the wisdom of P.Chidambaram, Manishankar Iyer, Jairam Ramesh and
Sarad Pawar while a bunch of new faces like Captain Gopinath, Meera
Sanyal, Nandan Nilekani and Yogendra Yadav could be seen in the
Central Hall. My Guess is BJP would remain unstoppable in 2014.
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