WHAT THE STARS FORTELL-2014?

Bikash Choudhury

13 December 2012 is the date supposedly world would come to an end ravaged by severe earthquake, tsunami and what not-sea water reaching at the level of Himalayan mountain announce the movie 2012. If the world cheats that doomsday prediction; what is store for India in 2014 general election would become important. Commentators after commentators have filled news print on the eve of Presidential nomination-realignment of political forces have just begun; that would remain a fare assessment. But, who would form the Govt. next would require a little star gazing with most sophisticated telescope. There would be a startling surprise in wait. Let me stick out my nake and say that “no National party would form the Govt. at the centre in 2014; rather, a conglomerate of regional party would assume the reigns of union Govt.” What could be the logic? Good Governance has been rewarded and bad ones were booted out with conviction. UP assembly election results was an example. UPA-II Govt. having faltered on many scores; lost the ability and confidence to iron out the rough creases; rather, with each passing day the Govt. and Ministers were consigned to corruption. Indian growth story under UPA Govt. is petering out with lowest Industrial growth, high food inflation, depreciating rupee and disastrous balance of payments; this Govt. is just asking for a severe reprimand from the electorate at the time of ballot. INC, the leader of the pack would have lost 50% of their mandate; in other words if the election were held right away; INC would become third largest party in the lower house with approximately 103 seats. If the election were held as per schedule in 2014, the loses would mount for INC more steeply as overall condition of living of majority of 70 crore electorate going down with frustration and despair going up. The principal opposition BJP has not crowned itself either, having conceded the opposition space to team Anna in one hand and with rudderless and ledershipless party with difference. However, BJP may be lucky enough to net the anti-incumbency laurels to an extent 15-25% making it the second largest party in the lower house with 140 seats approximately. The twist in the tail would be a conglomerate of 13 regional parties making common cause and becoming the largest pre poll alliance with 223 seats in the lower house. The balance would go to the left, smaller parties and independents.

The dadagiri of National Political parties would truly end with election 2014 as they would have to play the second fiddle to regional parties. This is largely due to politics of resources distribution by the centre. Regional parties have come to understand that to protect their home turf they would require liberal assistance from the central Govt. at least on merit if not the largess of National party running the central Government. The other significant development on the ground-electorates are getting closer to the regional parties as they have been able to articulate their concerns in much better way than the National parties. Further, the dissention and groupism has eclipsed most National parties while regional and smaller parties are running a tight ship; therefore, while National parties creating confusion the regional parties have much remained virtue of strength. The winning perception in the run up to elections seals the fate of Political parties and next time the same would apparently favor a set of Regional Political Party.