VOTE WITH CONSCIENCE

Bikash Choudhury

15^th Presidential election of India would go down the wire was not a forgone conclusion; but, it gained currency with the proposal of BJD supremo, backing the candidacy of

Sri P.A. Sangama which was later seconded by AIADMK Chief and much later the principal opposition BJP and some NDA partners. Though, Pranab Mukherjee is a potential candidate for the top job; however, in current political situation a vote for UPA II Presidential nominee would be an endorsement of a Govt. of under achiever and a vote for the policies pursued by the Gov. for last three years which taxed poor people with high petroleum prices, higher food inflation that removed very basic commodity out of reach of middle class homes and subsequently for the humiliating depreciation of Indian rupee which is dissipating Indian growth story. Therefore, the Electoral College for Presidential election must exercise their conscience while voting.

COMMUNICATION WITH HINA RABBANI KHAR

_{For Ms. Hina Rabbani Khar, Foreign Minister, Pakistan}

_{Congratulation on taking over as Foreign Minister of Pakistan in such a crucial time in the life and time of Pakistan and the Geo-Politics of the region. Your views on burying the baggage of history between two Nations are pragmatic and visionary. Young India, see a ray of hope in you and with you to recast the relation between India & Pakistan that nobody could hold hostage for their own selfish interest, not even the Global powers. India & Pakistan unity holds the key to prosperity in the region and therefore sabotaged by interested parties to sale their wares at the expense of poor people in both countries; for considerable period of time no body see through their game and our nations became victims of their evil designs. (We should revive the Iran-Pakistan-India Gas pipeline on mutual interest) With you in Foreign office in Pakistan, we should move fast and faster rate to build trust not only between Govt. of two Nations; but between, all the policy & opinion makers of two countries to build lasting relations between two people separated by History and Historical events of partition in 1947. If People of both sides could break the Berlin Wall in Germany; so do at Waga border in future. Let us hope.}

_{Once the relation is restored, Kashmir won’t remain a dispute; rather, that would be the binding force between India & Pakistan. Some time in future, we must revisit the core issue on the genesis of two nation theory—When Hindu & Muslims could live peacefully under secular rulers like Emperor Akbar and British administration; then, why not under democratic self rule?}

_{We should have a marker on 2020-25 by which time we must have resolved all outstanding issues and ready to face the World with one Army and one Foreign Policy.}

_{I take this opportunity, to invite you and your family and delegation to visit 800 year old Konark temple, near Bhubaneswar city in Orissa.}

_{Bikash Choudhury, #105, Kalpataru Nivas, Patia, Bhubaneswar, Orissa, India-751024, Mob: 09853426657,}

_{E-mail:streben.market@gmail.com,blog:www.ideasofhopebikash.blogspot.com}

VOTE WITH CONSCIENCE

Bikash Choudhury

15^th Presidential election of India would go down the wire was not a forgone conclusion; but, it gained currency with the proposal of BJD supremo, backing the candidacy of

Sri P.A. Sangama which was later seconded by AIADMK Chief and much later the principal opposition BJP and some NDA partners. Though, Pranab Mukherjee is a potential candidate for the top job; however, in current political situation a vote for UPA II Presidential nominee would be an endorsement of a Govt. of under achiever and a vote for the policies pursued by the Gov. for last three years which taxed poor people with high petroleum prices, higher food inflation that removed very basic commodity out of reach of middle class homes and subsequently for the humiliating depreciation of Indian rupee which is dissipating Indian growth story. Therefore, the Electoral College for Presidential election must exercise their conscience while voting.

OPEN LETTER TO PRIME MINISTER

Dear Prime Minister,

I guess you would be as sad as the entire country on the recent announcement of growth numbers of GDP which stands at 5.3% and the lowest in last 9 years. This partially reflects the State of Nation. People complain that you have not shown the commitment needed to bring the economy into the track; that you had once shown for the civil nuclear deal with USA; so much so you had put your entire Govt. on the chopping board. Why can’t you demonstrate the same courage to lift this nation from the morass of policy paralysis? Here are some suggestions if you care to listen.

Mr. Prime Minister, this Nation expects “Leadership” from you to remove the sense of despondency that currently reigns in the Industry, in the Bureaucracy and among Politicians also. There is a need to show bold leadership with a big ticket announcement having commitment and political chutzpa for the roll out, unlike FDI multi brand retail initiative. I guess turn around of the economy in the short run no longer in the hands of Economist any more; therefore, I propose a simple strategy of Water-Women-Energy.

WATER: Monsoon is round the corner and celebration for World Environment Day on 5^th June must have received final touches with plans for plantation; however, rain water conservation has not received that much attention which could actually enhance the results of plantation drive. I propose our Prime Minister lead a movement on the ‘issue of water’ that deals with rain water harvesting, prevention of river water pollution & other water bodies and cleaning & preservation of all water bodies. This is a huge task and therefore, requires a movement akin to “Labana Satyagrha” of Gandhiji to consolidate the efforts of Govt., Private organizations and people at large that could create a proactive public opinion to keep the interest of the people alive till the goal is achieved. This activity if done well would kill the despondency and rather create enthusiasm. Water is such an issue that would receive spontaneous co-operation from all political parties, industry and civil society across the board. In economic terms this initiative alone could contribute to GDP by improving agriculture production, enhancing green cover and saving the losses/wastage in floods to an extent by minimizing the run off by virtue of efficient rain water conservation. This is a basic activity that has potential of national well being but, ignored by successive Govt. that need correction.

WOMEN: Women in top 500 cities and towns are generally educated and have time and interest to supplement their family income. GoI in partnership with Industry bodies & Trade association could take initiative for a Training & Production House in each cities & towns which can train educated women in specific skill according to respective aptitude and interest and provide them short duration employment  for 2hrs/4 hrs/6hrs (between 11A.M to 4 P.M) when they have less demand of family. In this, Industry could get skilled staff at lower cost and could become more competitive in international markets. And, further employed women could spend their additional income in education of children or asset creation that would drive domestic demand.

ENERGY: GoI could take initiative to attract investment required in technology up gradation to minimize the Technical & Distribution losses of energy that stands at 30-40% which is a huge hole in our national exchequer. Even Govt. / Banks can choose to deploy a part of national savings into this activity which could deliver assured returns knowing the amount of savings that would accrue to the utilities. PMO also could announce a policy for cultivation of 1 hectare of Jatropa in each village with suitable incentives that over a period of time reduce our dependence on imported crude oil that runs a wedge in our balance of payments. 

These are few initiatives that could alter our economic outlook if done properly along with Prime Minister’s $ 1 trillion forays in infrastructure.

                                          

LETTER TO A COLUMNIST

Dear Anjuli Bhargava,

Read your article “hold them accountable” with interest; actually all reports on Aviation Industry was getting dull and duller just like the Industry itself. I have noted down the excellent experiment with the health system in Tamilnadu which is offering efficient healthcare in 220 Govt. hospitals. A good news and hope more such projects would follow in other parts of the country.

 

I have a counter argument: Knowing the size of Govt. in the country (approximately 1.5 crore employees) how many systems/ how big systems would be required at what cost to make all Govt. transaction productive. What we would actually require is a “shift of mindset from colonial to freedom” not only in Govt. but in other areas also. As you would know; the relative productivity of private sector vis-à-vis public sector and Govt. is precisely due to the prevailing mindset in the two sectors. We will need just a “bold leadership” which is hard to come by; keeping in view the current political situation. Opinion makers like you should think about it.

 Regards,

Bikash Choudhury

WHAT THE STARS FORTELL-2014?

Bikash Choudhury

13 December 2012 is the date supposedly world would come to an end ravaged by severe earthquake, tsunami and what not-sea water reaching at the level of Himalayan mountain announce the movie 2012. If the world cheats that doomsday prediction; what is store for India in 2014 general election would become important. Commentators after commentators have filled news print on the eve of Presidential nomination-realignment of political forces have just begun; that would remain a fare assessment. But, who would form the Govt. next would require a little star gazing with most sophisticated telescope. There would be a startling surprise in wait. Let me stick out my nake and say that “no National party would form the Govt. at the centre in 2014; rather, a conglomerate of regional party would assume the reigns of union Govt.” What could be the logic? Good Governance has been rewarded and bad ones were booted out with conviction. UP assembly election results was an example. UPA-II Govt. having faltered on many scores; lost the ability and confidence to iron out the rough creases; rather, with each passing day the Govt. and Ministers were consigned to corruption. Indian growth story under UPA Govt. is petering out with lowest Industrial growth, high food inflation, depreciating rupee and disastrous balance of payments; this Govt. is just asking for a severe reprimand from the electorate at the time of ballot. INC, the leader of the pack would have lost 50% of their mandate; in other words if the election were held right away; INC would become third largest party in the lower house with approximately 103 seats. If the election were held as per schedule in 2014, the loses would mount for INC more steeply as overall condition of living of majority of 70 crore electorate going down with frustration and despair going up. The principal opposition BJP has not crowned itself either, having conceded the opposition space to team Anna in one hand and with rudderless and ledershipless party with difference. However, BJP may be lucky enough to net the anti-incumbency laurels to an extent 15-25% making it the second largest party in the lower house with 140 seats approximately. The twist in the tail would be a conglomerate of 13 regional parties making common cause and becoming the largest pre poll alliance with 223 seats in the lower house. The balance would go to the left, smaller parties and independents.

The dadagiri of National Political parties would truly end with election 2014 as they would have to play the second fiddle to regional parties. This is largely due to politics of resources distribution by the centre. Regional parties have come to understand that to protect their home turf they would require liberal assistance from the central Govt. at least on merit if not the largess of National party running the central Government. The other significant development on the ground-electorates are getting closer to the regional parties as they have been able to articulate their concerns in much better way than the National parties. Further, the dissention and groupism has eclipsed most National parties while regional and smaller parties are running a tight ship; therefore, while National parties creating confusion the regional parties have much remained virtue of strength. The winning perception in the run up to elections seals the fate of Political parties and next time the same would apparently favor a set of Regional Political Party. 

POLITICS- THE ART OF POSSIBLE

                                                      Bikash Choudhury

Even now, in middle class drawing room discussion ‘Politics is a bad word’. This is principally because the litany of corruption cases being filed against politicians, news about shady characters they associate with, every sex scandal and land scam you will find at least one politician’s name figuring in the list and all dirty business like brothel to money laundering must have been sponsored or driven by a politician. Actually, middle class guys are impotent of doing any real thing outside home and therefore don’t know the needs of Politicians for cash to keep their head out of water. However, in my opinion and judgment the politics is one of the most creative professions and therefore it is otherwise called ‘the art of possible’. Though we call names of politicians; but, can we do without them? Many extra ordinary good works has been done by politicians; Nehru created IIT system that serves well for the country till date, unification of princely states was the contribution of Sardar Patel, abolition of privy purse & bank nationalization were gifts from Indira Gandhi and last but not the least the Pradhan Mantri Gramya Sadak Yojana was a master stroke of our bachelor Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. All these programs have impacted large number of people from bottom of pyramid.   

                              Why Politics such an attractive profession? So much so that people invest all that they earned and come out cropper and still remain in the profession (Amar Singh a classic case study), People loose close family members to politics and continue to be in the profession (Gandhi, Bhutto & Nixon clan are live examples) and people kill close family members to excel in Politics likes of Pandava’s of Mahabharata. Because, the highs and the lows travel a very long distance in politics and therefore, that provides that much excitement and thrill that nirvana or bodhisattva Buddha would not have experienced. It is said “there is no permanent friends or enemies in politics” Our former Prime Minister Sri Deve Gowada and current civil aviation minister Sri Ajit Singh are great believer of such philosophy. Uttarakhanda Congress Govt. is also an example of the art of possible. Other interesting facets of the profession being, there is no need or requirement of any minimum qualification to enter while every profession in this world there is a prescribed minimum qualification where as in politics there is no such need. The counter argument is qualified only stuff their heads with data & information without any real wisdom while our politicians sharpen their wisdom in the laboratory of life where qualification is not important. In case of our incumbent Prime Minister no body would grudge his wisdom but with that or in spite of that he ruined our economy, hammered our currency and paralyzed the policies of GoI; but, luck was in his favor-after failing to enter the lower house he became two term PM. While spending fifty summers in Indian politics Advaniji had to remain contended as only the Deputy Prime Minister in the sunset of his eventful political career. Therefore, Politics has been and would continue to be such a creative profession where cause and effect relationship can’t be clearly established and one plus one can be less than zero and eleven.   

Balance Of Payments

Bikash Choudhury

Recent news reports about Balance of Payments (BoP) and trade deficit must be very disturbing for economic managers and Industry. RBI has recently announced upward revision of External Commercial Borrowings (ECB- $40 billion) was an welcome news but insufficient to lift the mood in the market and inadequate to deal with current volatile economic condition of the country; in spite of 20 % depreciation in Indian rupee the exports has not surged and therefore trade deficit has reached 21 billion USD in last quarter, which is highest in 30 years. Now, it requires a multi prong attack to augment the inflow of USD, lift exports substantially and import substitution in a speed that could stabilize the rupee and balance of payments.

Govt. could examine to have an open ended Overseas Indian Dollar Bonds for Infrastructure, Healthcare and Education with 2/4/6 & 10/15/20 years maturity and with progressive rewards in terms of interest & bonus which could be traded in Indian bourses after 6 quarters. This should start a dollar inflow apart from FDI & FII. Govt. could also use Indian Diaspora to push Indian products abroad-Be Indian & Buy Indian.

Govt. should encourage private sector to promote Indian Saris as Brand statement for women in all continents for the rich and super rich category of fashionable customers to spur the demand for Indian textiles in those markets where demand is inelastic to growth.

American companies are branding food products like Pizza & KFC chicken and pick Indian pockets; why can’t Indian Govt. and companies do the same by exporting the Indian Culture in Toto. Efforts could be made to export Indian style marriages, Festivals,

Movies, Music and Cuisines in American style of branding and distribution in prosperous markets of America, Europe and Australia.

Govt. should reconsider its policies urgently on import substitution in Defense procurement. India should trust its private sector to develop suitable technology and products in arms, ammunition and logistics. This step alone could contribute to a substantial growth in value add export in few years.

GEOPOLITICAL OPTION

Bikash Choudhury

Apropos “India’s Geopolitical Option”; the article has raised very pertinent questions and issues related to Indian foreign policy & strategic interest. In a parliamentary democracy like ours there should be no confusion; parliament is the final arbiter of National interest. In the current global scenario the Indian Geopolitical options could be as follows: (1) India should target to achieve a closer Indian Confederation (India-Pakistan-Bangladesh) through economic & cultural ties leading to a military block in 10-20 years time span and that should be extended to SAARC by 2050. Indian confederation actually represent a complementary economic unit which was destroyed by political division after partition; each unit suffered heavily in last sixty years; the realization is slowly dawning on people in either side. (2) India should build closer ties with America & China simultaneously while reviving the Old Russian association. America has a strategic interest in the region with India while China could be roped in by opening up the Indian infrastructure sector for Chinese Investment as well as Industry. Russians could stand as countervailing power for long term security. To exercise such a geopolitical option India need to have political unity at the top and a central Govt. which is in grip of the economy & governance. 

WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

Bikash Choudhury

Apropos “testing time for Naveen”; some how I disagree with the title though the article was a good read after temporary silence of National Media on the subject. In my contention, the unfortunate events on and after 29^th May 2012 has actually created a window of opportunity for Sri Naveen Patnaik. First of all BJD supremeo contained the threat to his Govt. from London exemplified the amount of ground swelling support he commands and his control over the party organization and Govt. Further, subsequent events have now proved beyond reasonable doubt, who is actually the nucleus of Biju Janata Dal and who has blessings of people. Naveen Babu had delegated a sizable amount of authority and not ceded control at any point of time and that was done out of strength and not weakness and some amount of confidence owing to old association which was eventually betrayed. Timing could not have been worse; when BJD supremo was spearheading initiative in National & International arena for the benefit of people and polity of Odisha.

Pyari Babu became a victim of media created image of him; apparently, he took it seriously for a moment. Further, he was also led in the garden path by his small coterie of advisors for their own selfish interest. Pyari Babu forgot to ask one question to himself—will he ever consider delegating the amount of authority he was delegated to one of his colleague? Those who have met Pyari Babu come back impressed and would have found a sleeping author & philosopher in him. He should cut his losses and should drive down to “Naveen Nivas” as boldly as he had done many other things to just say that five letter word that make many complex issues & life much simpler and proceed on a natures trail for some time to get a clearer view from a distance. May be, a gubernatorial assignment would be his for the asking.