PAKISTAN-A WAY FOEWARD

BIKASH CHOUDHURY


Bombing of US embassy in Kabul,Afganistan seems to have hardened the
resolve of US administration to deal with Pakistan for its alleged
role in the bombing of US embassy in connivance with Haqqani Network;a
very dangerous and motivated terrorist group operating in Afganistan
and NWFP border region of Pakistan.US military chief Admiral Mike
Mullen's tough words "ISI is backing Haqqani Network" and subsequent
US threat of unilateral action against the Haqqani Network inside
Pakistan's sovereign territory(as they did incase of Osama Bin Laden),
speaks volumes about the nature of events unfolding in the
subcontinent of South Asia.
To American's credit, infact US has never been
as forgiving as in case of Pakistan;be it Nuclear Proliferation or
terrorism in India. It is because US has not figured out for itself
how to deal with the large pile of "Nuclear Weapons" of Pakistan and
the danger of its slipping into the hands of powerful terrorist
groups hiebernating in and around Pakistan that can hold the whole
WORLD to ransom.That is what precisely tied the hands of US against
any precipitate action on Pakistan.But, early indication noe points to
likely change and that to a substantial nature in very near future;as
the US Presidential election gets closer and pressure mounts on the
incumbent President to display typical American toughness & fire power
both in words and in kind with Pakistan that appeals to American
electorate-right or wrong.Situation is very grim;that is made out more
than clearly with the 3 hour long interaction of Mrs. Hillary
Clinton,the Secretary of State had with visiting Foreign Minister
Ms.Hina Rabbani Khar.As expected, Mrs. Clinton would have put Pakistan
on notice very sternly;therefore, foreign minister of Pakistan chose
to cut short her US visit and returned to Pakistan to brief the
Pakistan leadership on US stand.But, the irony was the blunt statement
of Pak foreign minister in New York "US can choose to dissociate with
Pakistan on terrorism at its own cost" based on the intrinsic strength
of her country or just for domestic public consumption-not difficult
to guess.Knowing very precarious financial condition of Pakistan with
a 60% debt servicing ratio and a 71% of repayments to disbursement
ratio;in other words, currently Pakistan has to spend 60% of annual
revenue on interest payments and 71% of fresh borrowing goes out on
repayment of old loans-leaving a very thin spread of 29 % for new
public expenditure.A country on such a fiscal state must and should
avoid rhetoric whic is self defeating.
What US would likely to do next? US
administration may like to swallow the bitter pill in Afganistan for
some time till they "comprehensively and completely" design a frame
work to deal with the important irritant "The Pakistani Nuclear
Arsenals";once that is done,US would prefer to act tough and may be in
little belligerent manner with Pakistan;to serve its domestic
constituency as it were with "Iraq or Iran".The consequence could be
very telling and dangerous for Pakistan;again, in view of its current
fiscal health.
What are the options before Pakistan?
Sadly, now Pakistan has ran out of options;Pakistan can't think of
confronting American Fire Power only with tacit support of China;and,
it is very unlikely that, China would overtly support Pakistan against
America.As China already has a huge stake in American Economy with
over trillion dollars worth investments in ADR(American Depository
Receipts) and America being the largest trading partner.Therefore,
Pakistan has only and only one option left to swallow its historical
pride and haughtyness and make peace with India for Good;and, at the
same time integrate its Economy,Foreign Policy, Military and Culture
with India & Indians in Lock Stock and Barrel.Subsequently,both India
& Pakistan together draft a "Peace Plan" for Afganistan to negotiate
the exit of American forces from the region,and, that should save
Pakistan Sovereignty and Economy from further collapse.