GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR CHINA

Bikash Choudhury


Chinese great wall stands tall for last 2232 years; which can be seen from the surface of moon that speaks volumes of Chinese ingenuity. The current status of China as emerging global power on the back of stupendous economic growth, technological advancement and scientific progress has not been without pain and perseverance. The loss of lives to Cultural Revolution and sufferings owing to frequent changes in Governance model(one country & two systems--centralized political system with free market economy) to try and find that best suits, now infamous Chinese impatience and insatiable desire for economic growth and prosperity is and would remain an unique and quintessential Chinese invention of recent times. That was also a sweet revenge of a Nation that lost and humiliated by a tiny Asian neighbor in nineteen forties. China has actually come a long way and destined to go much farther in terms of capturing the global mind space; provided, Chinese learn to learn from history and drop their belligerence and court global peace, regional stability, mutual prosperity and a shared destiny for mankind. Unlike the developed World who pursued war, violence and imperialism on the back of economic success; and wasted great opportunity for Global peace & prosperity in last century and sunk huge resources for which their economies are being penalized in this decade. Chinese people would be wiser not to drain their resources in mindless aggressive posturing in their neighborhood; rather invest the valuable surplus smartly to bridge the gap between the rural & urban Chinese people. And, in the ‘infrastructure deficit’ of countries in Asia which will buy them genuine goodwill and much higher return.
The recent visit of Chinese Ambassador, Mr. Zhang Yan to Bhubaneswar and his invitation to Chief Minister of Odisha is an interesting and welcome development. More importantly his statement “China interested for more strategic partnership with India globally in the domain of financial stability, climate change, food & energy security. And, China is for building relationship on principles of equality, mutual respect, political trust, business & commercial ties, cultural exchanges, people to people contact and strategic & cooperative partnership between its provinces and Indian states” is a far reaching foreign policy intent of Chinese which need to be diligently unfolded on the ground. “China and India, the two large countries in Asia with 35% of global population must have multi linear, multi dimensional foreign policy with velocity of progress distinct to each segment complementing the over all relationship in keeping with current times and ancient historical & cultural linkages”. India has a great deal to learn from Chinese experience in overall economic development; chiefly, on technology for faster infrastructure development. Chinese have a huge opportunity in India to modernize the entire transport sector (Road & Rail) while investing capital for much better return in comparison to American Treasury Receipts.
Chinese have shown great maturity in retaining the free enterprise system & governance model in Honkong; just that they need to drop their paranoia on Tibet. As it would be counter productive to keep a civilization and culture under wraps and by force; rather, it would be in the interest of both, to initiate a constructive dialogue for a ‘self rule of Tibet’ with full cultural freedom within Chinese sovereignty—which may facilitate the return of Dalai Lama to Tibet in his life time. With growing Indian might and emerging younger leadership may later demand for a pre 1950 status for Tibet as a neutral buffer region between India & China since the time of English rule; which may be tad difficult to accept for Chinese leadership. But, with cataclysmic changes happening fast in Global economy & politics current opportunity may not hold good for long time and therefore Chinese leadership must have to make a choice soon about a friendly company of India with a complacent Tibetan people; and China looking much better as a Global power.

FDI IN RETAIL--NEED CONSIDERATION

BIKASH CHOUDHURY

The FDI policy in retail of Govt. is a bold step in right direction; which needs careful consideration before announcing the verdict. Opposition for sake of opposing in this case would prove counter productive and would be neither in the larger interest of the country nor in favor of small retailers as the case is being made out to be. There may be a short & medium term impact on small mom & pop shops in cities with one million plus population; but, in the long term the benefits would out weight the short comings due to MNC retail play out. India is currently acutely suffering due to poor logistics and technology for distribution; therefore, our farmers fail to get a remunerative price linked to cost of production with a normal profits and at the same time consumers have to pay a very high price for the products which is much higher than cost of production & the quality delivered. It is common knowledge that inefficient logistic and distribution eats away a lot of resources without much value addition. If no attempt is made now, then the problem could be more acute in future as there would be no innovation in the domain of “logistics & distribution” in the country for a long, long time. The Indian Modern Retail for last fifteen years has been able to make a very negligible impact on the technology of sourcing of goods and its distribution. Therefore, instead of trying to reinvent the wheels once again; the country could at the least encourage the retail biggies of the World to bring their Capital, Technology & Management to make a paradigm shift in the method of consumption in the designated cities, in phase one and unlock value that would hold promise for our farmers, consumers and those who would work (School & College drop outs with gross enrolment ratio being 21%) for modern retails of MNC. The FDI policy for retail has also reasonable safe guards that would protect Indian interest that would attract the best in the trade; as the policy is applicable to cities of one million population, 30 % of sourcing from small & cottage industry, 30 % of fruits & vegetables Govt. retains the first right as supplier, 100 million USD being the minimum capital requirement with 50 % outlay reserved for backend and State Govt. having authority to issue trade license to operate.

The old maxim of economics “nurse the baby, protect the child and free the adult” holds good in case of Indian retail trade which is adult enough to compete and learn to survive and excel in currently globalize economy. With the opening up of retail sector our home grown modern retail industry would have the opportunity to partner or to learn the tricks of the trade from the MNC; which will enrich their experience and help develop innovative new business models in the domain. Though, the small retail stores would experience lower sales in short/medium term under the impact of MNC retail; but, it is unlikely to create a meltdown situation knowing the buying habits & patterns of Indian shoppers. There is a distinct possibility of consolidation among small retails to cut costs and gain advantages of scale which they have shunned till date due to dearth of competition. The other important aspect of FDI retail policy lies in its scope for employment creation (3 lakhs per annum) for new skill sets that is abundantly available among our school & college drop outs policy. Apart from, creating a much powerful demonstration effects and experience for both consumers and producers in a scale and scope not seen or heard before. This policy could not have come in a more opportune time like this when Indian corporate are investing abroad to hedge their bets in the country, FDI flows drying up, Dollars going strong against INR and inflation running high; to help attract 5-10 billion USD per annum. With this perspective in mind; we must and should consider the FDI policy in retail very carefully before accepting or rejecting the Idea.

LETTER TO SHASHI THAROOR:ON PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM

FROM: BIKASH CHOUDHURY


Esteemed Mr. Shashi Tharoor,

Read your article in Tehelka 17 Dec.2011 on Presidential form of Govt. While I highly appreciate your strong arguments on the subject; wish to put across my opinion on the subject for your kind reference and contemplation at leisure.

1. Why go for an expensive surgery while we can manage with a few dosages of strong medicine?

2. The problems with the current model as you have rightly pointed out:

a. Parliamentary paralysis- a few MP holding entire parliament to ransom

b. Quality of lawmakers

c. Politics at the cost of Policies

d. Divisive Politics against Decisive Governance

e. Too many political parties/lack of single party parliamentary majority

f. Emergence of strong regional parties’ vis-à-vis Declining National Party

g. Competitive Politics-little space for collaboration

3. In my opinion all the above problems can be easily dealt with within the current model if and when realization dawn on the two major political formation—how little have we achieved even after 64 years of Independence in terms of Human Development/ Economic progress. While China made 10 times of GDP in 28 yrs. (1978-2006) and other Asian countries progressed much faster. Our politicians are apparently, innocent about the butter in their bread; and, not very sure if they wish to be ruler of a rich & prosperous country or a poor & deprived Nation?

4. The current spate of divisive politics is due to INC desire to regain single party majority and BJP trial & tribulation to regain power at any cost and stakes are so high for both the parties that no body wishes to miss one punch any where to gain in the game of public perception; eventually, which ever party wins India is going to loose.
5. SOLUTION: A GENUINE ATTEMPT TO CHANGE THE POLITICAL DISCOURSE

Respect for each political party in parliament
• More inter and intra party debate on all issues
• Opposition view point given weightage beyond their numbers
• A permanent mechanism of engagement with opposition
• Private member’s bill for enactment of law
• Filibuster mechanism
• Stronger house rules against frivolous stalling of parliament

Though Presidential model looks alluring; as India currently needs a benevolent dictator and could find one in a directly elected President; but, difficult to predict how the system of division of roles between Executive & Legislative would work in a highly heterogeneous country like INDIA?

China – Bull in China Shop

Bikash Choudhury

The recent cancellation of border talks between India & China due to Buddhist conference in Delhi, apparently convey Chinese mindset about the importance it attaches to such talks and more importantly to the entire engagement with India. Indian Govt. very rightly but with caution and politeness called off the Chinese bluff by canceling the border talks altogether. This event is not likely to register with the hard nosed Chinese diplomatic community; unless and until India learn to brag about its importance and nuisance value with respect to the peaceful settlement of Tibetan issue(India has graciously taken on the responsibility of Tibetan refugees due to Chinese excesses on peace loving Tibetan Buddhist). If there can be a Bonn conference on Afghanistan; identically, Indiacould tacitly initiate a ‘New York conference on Tibet ' with an understanding in South Asia, Europe and American continent. Indian people have an emotional attachment with His Holiness Dalai Lama and a deep cultural link with Tibet and its people; therefore, Indian foreign policy response must evolve keeping in view of the sentiments of Indian people, National interest and ever changing Chinese behavior-“Bull in China shop”. Chinese betrayal of 1962 should just be kept in mind to fend off arguments in favor of ‘status quo’ with respect to policies on Tibet. India should be under no obligation; as China continues to disregard Indian sovereignty on the State of Arunanchal Pradesh and on portion J & K. Humiliation that India suffered on account of staple visa to defense delegation must not be brushed aside. There is a Chinese method to this madness and India could unapologetically copy the strategy by raising the issues of gross human rights violation, poor working conditions for workers and freedom of press & personal liberty as National policy for doing business with China; the same could also be driven into the minds of largest trading partners of China behind the closed door confabulation in the diplomatic communities; which has tremendous potential to hit China very hard under the belt.

A THIRD ALTERNATIVE

BIKASH CHOUDHURY


A regular visitor of restaurants for dinner would know the three emotions that are usually written on the face of people coming out of restaurants; happy, confused and dissatisfied.
The first one for being offered limited but good choice of food with distinct taste; second, for too many recipes on the menu with no knowledge which one would bring a refreshing feeling and the last one offering limited alternative with questionable quality and taste. Just like Indian electorate in the National politicking; being spoiled for choice between two groupings, either UPA or NDA. A third alternative is deserved by Indian electorates of 700 million; third alternative has been tried before many times but summarily failed due to lack of Ideas, Ideology and common program holding them and some for being cobbled together opportunistically against either one or the other political formation on the basis of vaulting political ambitions of some leaders which comes into being just before parliamentary election and melts away just like a flake of butter soon after (Janata Dal & United Front Govt. remain classic examples of failed attempts of third alternatives) General election in 2014 is expected to throw up its own dynamics; therefore, a third alternative political options should be ready by then for the electorate in national interest to offer the country a stable, strong and dynamic administration for Governance;
of course, in a value based partnership with any one of the leading political alliance of the day. But, this alliance should be developed on the basis of Idea & Ideology to be able to offer long term solution to the country and not to capture power alone.

A Social Democratic Alliance can be formed keeping in view the current political dynamics. Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), The Left (CPI & CPI-M & others), Telgu Desam, AIADMK and JDU of Karnataka can make this alliance comprising the north, east and southern belt of the country responsible for returning fifty percent of members of parliament in the lower house and which could turn the electoral arithmetic’s of 2014 on its head if it is able to capture sixty percent of the seats in the region (170/543). Looking at the formidable social coalition, the alliance would come to represent- The middle class, The Labor class, the bottom of social & economic pyramid and the minorities; the numbers would not be very difficult to achieve if this alliance strictly restricted to the National Electoral Politics alone and leaving the politics of the states to the respective stronger partners keeping a decent opportunity for collaboration in State & Local Electoral politics to further strengthen the alliance.

Social Democratic Alliance could be based on strong, prosperous India with equity among its people and happiness which can only happen if our Governance model wish to solve six basic problems of a large majority of our countrymen; i.e., Roti, Kapada and Makan & Bijli, Sadak and Pani in a time frame of ten years. These issues once targeted systematically by a political alliance, will ensure socio economic & political empowerment of a good chunk of people living on the margins of society and also would be able to hold the group together for long long time. The alliance also could pitch for a robust foreign policy on the premise of closer economic union of Indian Confederation and still closer South Asia. As always, a higher national purpose inspires the leaders, the leadership and followers alike. Can our leaders rise to the occasion and sacrifice political ambition for a larger influence over the policies of governance that would drive and shape the destiny of India in this century?