Sunday, February 21, 2010

Covert Operation-Broad Strategy


Bikash Choudhury


India's Pakistan problem is as old as the birth of the two independent countries. Pakistan as a country lives with insecurity from the start. One country separated by two thousand miles was unviable any moron with little intelligence would tell you; that is why we saw the birth of Bangladesh. As in personal life, an insecure person in a family is always danger to the family peace and one insecure neighbor- always,a threat to social life in a neighborhood; similarly one insecure country would always pose a challenge to its peace loving neighbor. That is the sad story of India. Now, India can only buy peace, only by neutralizing the offensive military capabilities of Pakistani State and Non State actors in covert and fool proof military operation in MOOSAD style, at the same time maneuver the foreign policy of Pakistan by covert media operation to create favorable public opinion inside Pakistan-advantage to India. India’s goal should be to create a friendly democratic Pakistan minus military strength. This is obviously not a one day affair; India must have the nerves and stomach to patiently wait for the result to show after sowing the seeds for a peaceful western borders.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Global Economy Revival-Indian Opportunity



BIKASH CHOUDHURY


Global economy currently need an opportunity for large scale new job creation and value creation by value addition in huge scale that could alter the quality, quantity and value of consumption that would be just sufficient to drive Global demand for goods and services in mature economy. India presently holds the key to faster Global economy revival and a stronger and stable Global Economy. India is currently having over half a billion rural population ready to join the ranks of middle class with higher per capita consumption.However,Indian economy is plugged by logistical bottleneck, inefficient agriculture and huge leakage in value of goods due to mismatch between supply and demand for each category of agricultural commodity. World Bank can bridge the gap in logistical bottleneck in India with an aid of $500 billion USD. The aid could help India complete three projects that would plug the logistical bottleneck in a time frame of ten years. First, transform the four metro cities like Kolkata, New Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai in to World Class Cities with an investment of $ 100 billion USD. Second, to connect the four Metro Cities by Bullet Trains with an investment of $ 100 billion USD. Third, to complete all Road and Railway projects connecting small cities with metro cities and connect over half a million villages with near by towns by all weather and concrete roads with an investment of $ 300 billion USD.These investments in India would create immediate job opportunity in mature economies of US & Europe as infrastructure companies in developed countries are likely corner the contracts in India. In long term, after completion of three projects; Indian rural and urban economy would integrated by virtue of world class logistics and therefore save the leakages in value of Agriculture commodities. Further, Indian economy would be able to deal with mismatch in supply and demand for Agricultural products due to smooth flow of information and infrastructure for movement of physical goods and services. Again, large scale value addition in agricultural commodities could take place in rural areas more competitively with economies in labor arbitrage. Development of Productive capacities for value addition and production of finished products, ancillaries and to extent capital goods would happen in rural areas and that would drive employment and consumption in long run to complete the virtuous cycle of prosperity in India and demand for goods and services for mature economy in US and Europe.
Again, India is a large and mature democracy with proven ability of smooth hand over of political power on the basis of popular mandate. Global investment in India would be secure and most likely to return a better ROCE than other BRIC countries. World Bank must give this Indian opportunity a chance.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Threat of GDP



1.22 trillion USD at current prices-2008

Bikash Choudhury


All economist, politicians and corporate chieftains wish economy i.e., GDP to grow by 9% and only they understand how dear this figure to their lives. Economist more work, politicians more votes and corporate chieftains more profits. These mortal would hardly constitute a 0.5% of billion population of this country. How about balance 99.5% populi?
They hardly get time, from their daily grind to think about GDP and its promise for their and family future. Recently, a cross section of global intellectuals have conceded that GDP does not accurately reflect the State of the Economy, worse still the people at the bottom of pyramid. In my understanding GDP only says, how many middle class people got; how much richer and hides the fact, how many poor people went belly-up and how many poor people live worse than animal existence. Therefore, we in India must revisit GDP with the data on average disparity between regions in the country and again between regions of a State. Further, we must take into account the disparity in income & expenditure-highs & lows, and then publish actual Gross Happiness or Despair for the reference of Policy makers. Having said that, we still welcome an above nine percent GDP to keep the system moving forward.
In current market driven economy and TV, Mobile and Bollywood controlled culture Urban and Rural divide would continue to grow to the disadvantage of rural poor unless and until negative transfer of resources is checked between rural & urban economy. Rural economies continue to sell stuffs at less and buy stuffs from urban economy at high. What is the way forward?Rural economy need to increase the value addition in all agriculture & other farm produce both in quantity and quality by 10-20 % each year.
Infrastructure for productive capacity creation in rural areas would need at least average level of logistic.That is net work roads and appropriate and cost effective transportation facility backed by a suitable Eco-system of transport industry, Networked Warehousing system connected to urban/metro markets.
Businessmen, Entrepreneurs of urban area can invest in creating production facility for value addition in rural areas and can save in labor cost and gain fiscal benefits already offered by Govt. All said and done, in spite of fiscal attraction the net investment in rural areas from urban pockets still remain at nascent level because of poor logistic. Unless and until the quality of rural-urban logistic improves; the rural economy will continue to be plugged by the vicious cycle of negative transfer.
Therefore, Central, State Govt. and Industrial houses need to make concerted efforts in improving the logistic and connect the Rural-Urban economy.

Once the quality of logistic improves in the country then our Industry can become compete with China by leveraging 'distributed manufacturing'by engaging unemployed and under employed rural women and men in rural areas on a part times basis in lucrative jobs, again, on the basis of their individual interest & skill. This will add a new source of additional income for rural people and help transform the quality of life in six lakh plus villages in the country.
If we look at a case where, we can employ ten crore village women for two hours daily at Rupees Ten an hour then that would generate an annual income of 18 billion USD per year.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

RURAL MBBS COURSE-NHRC ROAD BLOCK



BIKASH CHOUDHURY


Draw your attention to the public position of National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) on "Rural MBBS course- Discriminatory". NHRC member Sri P.C.Sharma said 'People in rural areas are entitled treatment from fully qualified doctor’s just as urban areas’. THINK AGAIN: There is a saying 'some thing is better than nothing'. Mr. Sharma should cross check the ratio of doctors to population and again must ascertain how many qualified doctors are actually available in rural areas for consultation against actual requirement? How we can bridge the gap and in how many years in the current model of medical education and, knowing the reluctance of doctors to work in rural areas? Till such time, should we leave the rural folks in the hands of village Quacks? Again Mr. Sharma said 'Three & half year Rural MBBS course--half baked professionals'
THINK AGAIN: If we take a survey, will find rural folks mostly come to PHC
for basic treatments like: Dihorehea, General/Seasonal Fever, Stomach
Upset, Typhoid, Malaria, Burn injury, Accidental Trauma, Normal Child Birth
ect.. If we take inventory of Rural Health challenges and skill set required
to address the medical intervention then a Competent Group of Medical
Academic or MCI could design a full professional medical course of 3-1/2 Yrs for rural areas; however, in normal course the skill up gradation and competency improvement would continue formally and informally after graduation from such rural MBBS curriculum. The contention of half baked Professional of Mr. Sharma is an assumption of a conventional mindset, without actually considering the problem in its entirety and Immediate Solution. Further, NHRC should not be a stumbling block in the way of 'Better Rural Health System’. THINK AGAIN: Govt. proposal for short-term 3 1/2 years MBBS course for Rural Medical professional is the Right step in Right direction after a long time; therefore, without applying mind, NHRC should not scuttle a Progressive Policy for rural poor; whose interest NHRC professes to protect.